Historical record
Annual units delivered vs. absorbed — Phoenix MSA (2020–Q1 2026)
Units Delivered vs. Net Absorbed by Year
Delivered
Absorbed
| Year | Units Delivered | Net Absorbed | Balance | Vacancy YE | Avg Rent | Rent YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | ~8,800 | ~7,200 | +1,600 surplus | ~5.5% | ~$1,160 | +3% |
| 2021 | ~14,500 | ~15,000 | (500) deficit | ~4.5% | ~$1,340 | +15% |
| 2022 | ~13,500 | ~8,500 | +5,000 surplus | ~6.0% | ~$1,665 | +24% |
| 2023 | ~17,500 | ~12,500 | +5,000 surplus | ~7.2% | ~$1,580 | –5% |
| 2024 | ~22,400 | ~19,000 | +3,400 surplus | ~7.5% | ~$1,555 | –1.5% |
| 2025 | ~22,000 | ~21,000 | +1,000 surplus | ~7.5% | ~$1,558 | –3.0% |
| 2026 YTD (Q1) | 1,803 | 4,496 | (2,693) deficit | 7.0% (Northmarq) 11.7% CoStar Jun'26 | $1,515 | –2.6% |
Supply Context — Jay Parsons, Greystar Desert Region Webinar (6/30/2026)
Phoenix peaked at roughly 7,000 units/quarter and is now just above 5,000. The real drop-off comes late 2026 into 2027. Supply growth sits around 4% by year-end 2026 — it won't fall below 2.5–3% until 2027. There are an estimated ~20,000 excess lease-ups still working through the Phoenix system nationally. The market doesn't fully heal until these normalize, which is largely a 2027 story.
East vs. West Valley — A Tale of Two Markets
West Valley saw a severe spike — peak supply growth of ~9%, with ~21,000 units delivered that nearly doubled the far West Valley's stock, and ~4,000+ units still under construction. East Valley peaked at a more moderate ~4–4.5% and is already approaching 3%, well ahead of the West Valley recovery timeline.
Turning Point — CoStar, June 2026
Supply/demand conditions flipped from negative 1.6% in June 2025 to positive 0.1% in June 2026 — the first time since the supply wave began that demand has outpaced supply on an annual basis. Inventory under construction fell from 6.6% to 4% of total stock year-over-year.
Sources: Northmarq Q1 2026 Phoenix Market Insights; Northmarq Q4 2024 & Q4 2025; Cushman & Wakefield MarketBeat; Jay Parsons / Greystar Desert Region Webinar 6/30/2026; CoStar Group via Phoenix Business Journal 7/7/2026; RealPage Market Analytics.
Forward-looking supply & demand
Phoenix MSA delivery & absorption projections — 2026–2028
Projected Deliveries vs. Absorption (2026–2028)
Projected Deliveries
Projected Absorption
~7.5%
2026 YE Vacancy
Northmarq forecast
10%
2027 Vacancy
CoStar projection (PBJ 7/7/26)
9.5%
2028 Vacancy
CoStar projection (PBJ 7/7/26)
+green
Rent growth
CoStar: Q2 2026 onwards
| Year | Proj. Deliveries | Proj. Absorption | Balance | Vacancy Forecast | Rent Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ~12,000–14,000 | ~14,000–16,000 | Near balance | ~7.5% YE (Northmarq) CoStar: ~11.7% (all-inclusive) | Flat to +0.2%; CoStar forecasts green from Q2 '26 |
| 2027 | ~8,000–10,000 | ~15,000–17,000 | Demand leads | ~10% (CoStar) · ~6.5–7% (stabilized) | +3% to +5% — concession rollback gradual |
| 2028 | ~8,000–11,000 | ~14,000–16,000 | Demand leads | ~9.5% (CoStar) · ~6.0–6.5% (stabilized) | +4% to +6% — approaching pre-pandemic norms |
2026 — Normalization Year
Northmarq forecasts ~14,000 completions — a 43% drop from 2024. Of 26,400 units under construction, roughly half deliver in 2026. Supply growth sits at ~4% of inventory and won't dip below 2.5–3% until 2027 per Jay Parsons. The front half of 2026 remains heavier on deliveries; the meaningful drop-off is late 2026 into early 2027.
2027–2028 — Recovery Window
Concession rollback is gradual and "largely a 2027 story" per Jay Parsons (Greystar webinar). West Valley Phoenix will likely be among the very last markets to see concessions moderate, potentially into 2027–28. East Valley and Scottsdale-corridor submarkets lead the recovery. Renting is ~58% cheaper than buying in Phoenix — a durable in-migration driver sustaining demand through the recovery.
Note on Vacancy Figures
Two vacancy figures coexist in this market. Northmarq tracks stabilized professionally managed properties (~7.0–7.5%). CoStar's broader universe (all inventory including lease-ups) reads 11.7% as of June 2026. Both are real — Northmarq's figure reflects what stabilized operators experience day-to-day; CoStar's captures the full competitive landscape including the ~20,000 excess lease-up units still working through the system.
Sources: Northmarq Q1 2026 Phoenix Market Insights (14,000 unit 2026 forecast); Jay Parsons / Greystar Desert Region Webinar 6/30/2026; CoStar Group / Phoenix Business Journal 7/7/2026 (CoStar vacancy and rent forecasts); RealPage Market Analytics; MMG Real Estate Advisors; Marcus & Millichap / IPA 2026 Phoenix Forecast.
Submarket-by-submarket
Phoenix MSA rent, vacancy & concession data by submarket
Mid-Year 2026 Update — Momentum Diverging
Jay Parsons (6/30/2026) notes Phoenix is "flat" overall but with "eastern momentum" — East Valley submarkets (Chandler, Gilbert, Tempe, Scottsdale) are regaining rent traction while West Valley submarkets (Avondale, Goodyear, Glendale) remain in the deepest correction. Loss-to-lease has flipped to gain-to-lease in high-supply submarkets — renewals up only 1–3%, incentivizing move-outs and keeping concessions sticky at roughly 2 months free on stabilized product.
| Submarket | Current Rent (Q1 '26) | Peak (~2022) | Δ from Peak | Vacancy Est. | Concession | Trajectory |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Scottsdale | $1,949 | ~$2,100 | –7.2% | ~6.5% | ~10–12% | Leading recovery · Eastern momentum |
| N. Scottsdale / Fountain Hills | $1,929 | ~$2,080 | –7.3% | ~6.5% | ~10–12% | Resilient · –1.0% YoY |
| Central Phoenix | ~$1,750–1,850 | ~$1,950 | –8–10% | ~8.0% | ~13–15% | Stabilizing · High downtown supply |
| Chandler | ~$1,650–1,750 | ~$1,800 | –7–8% | ~5.0% | ~10–13% | Recovering · East Valley leader |
| Gilbert | ~$1,600–1,700 | ~$1,800 | –7–9% | ~6.0% | ~11–14% | Stabilizing · Tech corridor demand |
| Ahwatukee Foothills | ~$1,600–1,650 | ~$1,750 | –7% | ~5.0% | ~9–11% | Best vacancy · +100bps YoY improvement |
| N. Tempe / University | ~$1,650–1,750 | ~$1,850 | –8–10% | ~7.0% | ~12–15% | Held firm · ASU + tech demand |
| East Mesa | ~$1,450–1,550 | ~$1,650 | –9–12% | ~8.0% | ~12–15% | Improving · East Valley tilt |
| Deer Valley | ~$1,450–1,550 | ~$1,650 | –8–10% | ~7.5% | ~11–14% | Supply pressure · Active new dev |
| Peoria / Sun City / Surprise | ~$1,450–1,550 | ~$1,620 | –8–10% | ~8.5% | ~13–16% | High supply · Moderating |
| Avondale / Goodyear / W. Glendale | $1,535 | ~$1,700 | –9.7% | ~8.5–9% | ~14–17% (~2 mo free) | Last to recover · Into 2027–28 |
| Glendale (North) | ~$1,400–1,500 | ~$1,600 | –9–12% | ~8.8% | ~14–17% | Highest vacancy · 8.8% avg since early 2024 |
| South Phoenix / Maryvale | ~$1,200–1,350 | ~$1,450 | –10–15% | ~9–10% | ~13–16% | Deepest decline · Class C most pressured |
| Northwest Mesa | ~$1,400–1,500 | ~$1,560 | –7–9% | ~8.0% | ~12–15% | Moderate pressure |
| Pinal County | ~$1,250–1,350 | ~$1,450 | –10–14% | ~9–11% | ~14–18% | Highest risk · Cuts continuing |
Concession Reality Check — Jay Parsons (6/30/2026)
Concessions are at their highest levels since the early 2010s on stabilized Phoenix product — approximately 2 months free. They are likely "sticky" because renters now expect a deal. The rollback is gradual and "largely a 2027 story." Loss-to-lease has flipped to gain-to-lease in high-supply submarkets: renewals are only up 1–3%, which actually incentivizes residents to move out and renegotiate rather than renew — a self-reinforcing cycle that delays concession burn-off.
Metro-Wide Context
Phoenix metro average rent is –0.2% YoY as of June 2026, improved from –1.5% a year ago (CoStar). 1-bedroom average is $1,300, 22% below the national average (Apartments.com). Metro rents remain 8%+ below 2022 peak. New apartments (2020–2025 vintage) are –17.3% below effective rent peak — worst among major U.S. markets (RealPage).
Sources: Northmarq Q1 2026 Phoenix Market Insights; Jay Parsons / Greystar Desert Region Webinar 6/30/2026 (concession levels, loss-to-lease, East vs. West Valley); CoStar / Phoenix Business Journal 7/7/2026 (rent growth –0.2% June 2026); Apartments.com via PBJ ($1,300 1BR avg); RealPage Market Analytics.
CoStar Export · Sales Info · 74 transactions · 100+ units · Phoenix MSA · 2025–YTD 2026
Sales Info — Actual Sales Comps & Capital Market Breakdown
🔅 LIVE
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74
Total Transactions
100+ units, PHX MSA
$271K
Overall Avg PPU
All vintages blended
$140K
Avg PPU Pre-1980
Range: $105K–$163K
$184K
Avg PPU 1980s
Range: $122K–$277K
$254K
Avg PPU 1990s
Range: $211K–$306K
$236K
Avg PPU 2000–2009
Range: $221K–$256K
$323K
Avg PPU 2010–2019
Range: $213K–$494K
$373K
Avg PPU 2020+
Range: $256K–$741K
Transaction Map — All 74 Sales — click any dot for deal details
Under $150K/unit
$150K–$250K
$250K–$350K
$350K+/unit
● Dot size = unit count
Average Price Per Unit by Vintage — Actual CoStar Comps
Based on 75 transactions (100+ units) in Phoenix MSA, 2025–YTD 2026. Source: CoStar.
| Vintage | Sales | Avg PPU | Min PPU | Max PPU | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-1980 | 7 | $139,746 | $104,839 | $162,500 | 7.25% – 8.25% |
| 1980s | 19 | $184,094 | $121,951 | $276,515 | 6.75% – 7.75% |
| 1990s | 7 | $254,462 | $210,843 | $305,743 | 6.25% – 7.00% |
| 2000–2009 | 4 | $236,455 | $220,833 | $256,250 | 5.75% – 6.50% |
| 2010–2019 | 11 | $323,355 | $213,356 | $494,071 | 5.00% – 5.75% |
| 2020+ | 27 | $372,995 | $255,738 | $741,497 | 4.50% – 5.25% |
| All Vintages | 74 | $271,478 | $104,839 | $532,000 | 4.50% – 8.25% |
Price Per Unit by Submarket
Average price per unit by submarket and vintage era, based on actual CoStar sales comps (100+ unit transactions, 2025–YTD 2026). Hover bars for detail. Use the submarket filter below to isolate a market in the full transaction log.
Average PPU by Submarket — All Vintages Blended
| Submarket | Sales | Avg PPU | Pre-1980 | 1980s | 1990s | 2000–2009 | 2010–2019 | 2020+ | Min PPU | Max PPU | Est. Cap Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottsdale | 9 | $454,053 | — | — | $288,835 | — | $345,745 | $493,129 | $321,078 | $741,497 | 4.50% – 5.25% |
| East Valley — Gilbert / Chandler | 13 | $312,570 | — | $240,078 | $305,743 | — | $317,670 | $362,269 | $220,940 | $415,723 | 4.75% – 5.50% |
| East Valley — Tempe / Mesa | 12 | $226,809 | $138,820 | $179,803 | $269,663 | — | — | $365,196 | $133,891 | $451,651 | 5.00% – 5.75% |
| Central / North Phoenix | 27 | $243,602 | $140,116 | $183,933 | $221,386 | $247,690 | $352,131 | $320,353 | $104,839 | $494,071 | 5.00% – 6.00% |
| West Valley | 13 | $239,732 | — | $137,071 | $237,110 | $225,220 | $214,286 | $313,271 | $121,951 | $380,000 | 5.50% – 6.75% |
| Pinal County / Outlying | 1 | $265,487 | — | — | — | — | — | $265,487 | $265,487 | $265,487 | 6.00% – 7.25% |
Capital Market Breakdown — Buyers vs. Sellers
Each of the 75 transactions was classified by entity type based on cross-referenced company profiles. When a transaction lists two parties (A | B), the lead/first-listed party determined the classification. Categories reflect the firm's primary business model — not deal-specific role.
Buyer Composition — Browse by Category
Seller Composition — Browse by Category
Buyer Composition — Key Insight
Private Equity / Funds lead buyer activity (39.2%, 29 transactions) — funds targeting value-add and opportunistic returns across all vintages. Private Capital / HNW is the second-largest group (29.7%, 22 transactions) — individuals, family offices, and private syndicates concentrated in older vintage at discounted basis. Institutional capital (23.0%, 17 transactions) is focused on 2010s–2020s product in high-rent submarkets. Operators buying for their own account represent 2.7%.
Seller Composition — Key Insight
Institutional capital is the dominant seller (27.0%, 20 transactions) — Blackstone, Cortland, Greystar, MG Properties, Sares-Regis, and others recycling or rebalancing large portfolios. Private Equity / Funds (25.7%, 19 transactions) represent funds hitting hold periods, particularly 2021-era acquirers now exiting. Developers / Builders (20.3%, 15 transactions) are selling newly completed lease-ups. Private Capital / HNW sellers (24.3%, 18 transactions) are individuals and private operators cycling out of older vintage holds.
Notable Institutional Seller Activity
Blackstone entities (BREIT, Blackstone Inc., Olympus|Blackstone) appear as sellers in 5 transactions — Arrowhead Summit, Residences at Stadium Village ($230K/unit), Vistara at SanTan Village ($315K/unit), Redstone at SanTan Village, Finisterra on Grove ($270K/unit), and Arches at Hidden Creek ($221K/unit) — reflecting continued BREIT portfolio rebalancing. Greystar (world's largest operator), Cortland, MG Properties, and Sares-Regis also appear as institutional sellers, collectively representing large-scale portfolio recycling out of Phoenix during the correction.
Live Sales from Google Sheet
— updates automatically when the sheet is edited
Fetching live data from Google Sheet…
Full Transaction Log — All 75 Sales Comps
Filter by:
| Property | City | Yr Built | Vintage | Units | PPU | $/SF | Buyer | Buyer Type | Seller | Seller Type | Sale Date |
|---|
Cap Rate Estimates — Methodology Note These are market-participant estimates based on: Northmarq Q1 2026 Phoenix Market Insights (Class A ~5.0%, Class C 6.5–7.0%), known transaction comparables in the dataset, CBRE Cap Rate Survey (Class A 4.74%, B 4.92%, C 5.38% national), and Marcus & Millichap 2026 Phoenix Multifamily Investment Forecast. Vintage serves as a proxy for asset class. Submarket adjustments reflect relative demand strength and vacancy levels as of Q1–2026. Individual transactions will vary based on occupancy, condition, assumable debt, and deal structure.
Source: CoStar Group export — all multifamily sales of 100+ units in Phoenix MSA, January 2025 through July 10, 2026 (75 transactions). Buyer and seller classifications based on cross-referenced company profiles: public filings, CoStar entity data, company websites, and industry knowledge. When a transaction lists two parties (e.g., "Carlyle Group | Alliance Residential"), the primary/lead party determines the classification. Classification is the author's judgment and may differ from self-reported characterizations.
Operational context
What's driving the Phoenix story right now
01
Class C Rents Hit Hardest
Phoenix Class C rents: –10.5% YoY — 6th worst nationally (RealPage). The vast majority of renter household growth and 80–90% of absorption is concentrated in Class A and B+. Class C is the primary pressure point (Jay Parsons, 6/30/2026).
Implication: Workforce housing operators face severe concession pressure. Don't over-index on affordability — Gen Z trades up for quality and location rather than down, using roommates or parent guarantors to reach higher-quality product.
HIGH RISK
02
New Apartment Rent Reset
2020–2025 vintage Phoenix apartments are –17.3% below their effective rent peak — worst among all major U.S. markets (RealPage). New-construction rents peaked in 2022 and have fallen $300+ per month off peak in Phoenix (Jay Parsons, 6/30/2026). This directly suppresses new starts and drags the whole market.
Implication: Merchant developers are underwater. Creates a recovery floor for stabilized assets as new competition fades through 2027.
CRITICAL
03
Absorption Strength
#2 nationally for T-12 net absorption: 23,349 units — trailing only Dallas/Fort Worth. Phoenix ranked in CoStar's top 10 most improved multifamily markets nationally for June 2026. Supply/demand balance flipped from –1.6% (June 2025) to +0.1% (June 2026) — first positive reading since the supply wave began.
Implication: Demand fundamentals are intact. The challenge is purely supply-side. The inflection point has arrived — it's now about pace of recovery, not direction.
POSITIVE
04
Affordability Improving
Phoenix rent-to-income: 23% — below the 30% stress threshold. 41 consecutive months of incomes outpacing rents nationally (Jay Parsons, 6/30/2026). Renting in Phoenix is ~58% cheaper than buying — a durable in-migration driver relative to coastal markets. $75K+ household renters sit at only ~19% rent-to-income vs. under-$30K at ~80%.
Implication: Widening demand funnel — the "misleading" aggregate affordability narrative masks a strong upper-income renter base that is growing fastest and driving the most absorption.
POSITIVE
05
In-Migration Tailwind
#5 U-Haul growth metro nationally (2025). Maricopa County: 3rd fastest-growing county in the U.S. Arizona forecasted to add ~270,000 residents ages 20–39 by 2033 — 4th largest gain nationally (Oxford Economics). Phoenix job growth: ~1% YoY. Renting 58% cheaper than buying in Phoenix vs. coastal alternatives.
Implication: Population and demographic growth sustains above-average absorption through the recovery window. This is a durable structural tailwind, not cyclical.
TAILWIND
06
Investment Market Bifurcated
High-rent submarket sales volumes at 78% of Q4 2019 peak; low-rent submarket volumes at only 30% of Q4 2019 peak (RealPage/MSCI). National transaction volume ~$150B vs. $400B peak. Q1 2026 debt originations second-highest Q1 on record — mostly refis/recaps. Low-rent areas face the widest bid-ask and need cap rates to widen further (Jay Parsons, 6/30/2026).
Implication: Capital concentrating in East Valley — Scottsdale, Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert, Deer Valley. West Valley and Pinal County remain largely sidelined. Extend-and-pretend is limiting forced sales in Class A/B.
BIFURCATED
07
Consumer Confidence — The Wildcard
Consumer confidence is below GFC levels despite far lower unemployment (Jay Parsons, 6/30/2026). ~900,000 more 25–34 year-olds are living with parents vs. norms — a near-term demand drag but longer-term pent-up demand. Current residents are in good shape — renewing and paying rent. Prospective renters are cautious and slower to sign leases.
Implication: The pent-up household formation cohort (25–34 living at home) represents latent demand that will release as confidence recovers — a tailwind for 2027–28 absorption.
WATCH
08
Vintage Pricing Shift
1970s–1980s property sales nearly doubled in 2025, pulling metro median PPU down ~15% from 2024 to ~$218K. Class A at $343K/unit vs. Class C at $159K/unit in Q1 2026 — widest gap in recent cycles. Heavy value-add "a long way from working"; light/cosmetic on newer stock in strong submarkets is what pencils (Jay Parsons, 6/30/2026).
Implication: The best owners today are well-capitalized with low floating-rate exposure. Operationally, the priority is "heads on beds" — fix occupancy before chasing rent.
OPPORTUNITY
Bottom Line
Phoenix is working through the back half of the largest supply wave in its history — and the data now shows the inflection point has arrived. CoStar's top-10 most-improved ranking, the supply/demand balance flipping positive, vacancy declining, and construction falling sharply all confirm the direction of travel. The pace of recovery is the question, not the direction. East Valley leads; West Valley has more to work through into 2027–28. The demand fundamentals — population growth, in-migration, improving affordability, and massive pent-up household formation — remain firmly intact.
Sources: Jay Parsons / Greystar Desert Region Webinar 6/30/2026; RealPage Market Analytics; Northmarq Q1 2026 Phoenix Market Insights; CoStar / Phoenix Business Journal 7/7/2026; U-Haul 2025; Oxford Economics; MSCI Real Capital Analytics; John Burns Research & Consulting.
Jay Parsons · Greystar Webinar · June 30, 2026
Southwest Desert Region — Multifamily Mid-Year 2026
Covering Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico. Jay Parsons presented a comprehensive mid-year overview for the desert region as part of a Greystar-hosted webinar on 6/30/2026. Key takeaways for Phoenix operators and investors are highlighted throughout.
Thesis & Supply
Core Thesis
Supply is the "#1, #2, and #3" dominant headwind across the desert region — especially in Phoenix. The slowdown is a supply story, not an affordability or demand-collapse story.
Desert region starts are off more than 50% from a ~35,000/yr peak. Completions peaked in 2024; 2026 is easing but the first half remains delivery-heavy.
Phoenix Supply Specifics
Phoenix peaked at ~7,000 units/quarter; now just above 5,000. The real drop-off comes late 2026 into 2027.
Supply growth sits at ~4% by year-end 2026. Won't fall below 2.5–3% until 2027.
Region overall is down 31% from the Q4 2024 peak but remains elevated.
East vs. West Valley
West Valley: Severe spike — ~9% peak growth rate, ~21,000 units delivered nearly doubling the far West Valley stock. ~4,000+ units still under construction. Among the very last to recover — into 2027–28.
East Valley: Peaked at ~4–4.5%, already approaching 3%. Well ahead of West Valley in recovery timeline.
Other Desert Markets
Tucson: Completions down 85% (small base); rents ~+30bps YoY.
Las Vegas: Never experienced a significant supply spike; rents ~zero growth YoY; job growth quietly +2.1% — convention attendance +11%.
Albuquerque: Mini-wave with a last bit in Q3; rents ~+30bps YoY.
Rents & Concessions
Rent Picture
National YTD rent growth at a "four-year high" but still below normal. Phoenix is flat overall with eastern submarket momentum. New-construction (2020+) rents peaked in 2022 and have fallen $300+/month off peak in Phoenix and Tucson — suppressing new starts and dragging the whole market.
Loss-to-Lease Flip
Loss-to-lease has flipped to gain-to-lease: renewal rents are only up 1–3%, which incentivizes residents to move out and renegotiate rather than renew — a self-reinforcing cycle that keeps concessions elevated.
Concessions at highest since early 2010s — approximately 2 months free on stabilized Phoenix product — and likely sticky. Renters now expect a deal.
Lease-Up Overhang
~85,000–100,000 excess lease-up units are working through the national system, with an estimated ~20,000 of those in Phoenix alone. The market doesn't fully normalize until these units stabilize — predominantly a 2027 story.
Demand & Affordability
Affordability (Not the Problem)
41 consecutive months of incomes outpacing rents nationally. Rent-to-income ratios across the desert are well under 30%:
Tucson: 22.2% · Albuquerque: 22.5% · Phoenix: 23% · Las Vegas: 24%
This leaves meaningful room for 3–5% rent growth ahead in Class A & B.
Who Is Renting & Where
The "31% of income" affordability figure is misleading — it is driven by under-$30K households at ~80% rent-to-income, masking $75K+ households at only ~19%.
80–90% of absorption is in Class A / B+. Class C is the pressure point. Gen Z trades up for quality and location rather than down — using roommates or parent guarantors.
Formation Headwinds (Near-Term)
Consumer confidence is below GFC levels despite far lower unemployment. ~900,000 more 25–34 year-olds are living with parents vs. historical norms — a near-term drag on lease signings but significant pent-up demand for 2027–28.
Rent vs. Buy Advantage
Renting is now 50%+ cheaper than buying across the desert region — a durable in-migration driver:
Phoenix ~58% cheaper · Las Vegas ~60% · Albuquerque ~62% · Tucson ~67%
This coastal-to-desert migration premium has structural staying power.
Capital Markets
Transaction Volume
Sales are a "crawl, not a rebound": national volume ~$150B vs. ~$400B peak — below 2019 levels. Sellers aren't forced (unlike office) and stay bullish, so they hold. Bid-ask spreads are widest in low-rent submarkets.
Flight to Quality
High/mid-rent submarkets are ~80%+ back to 2019 volume vs. ~55% for low-rent Sun Belt submarkets. Strong bias toward newer vintage. Low-rent areas face the widest bid-ask and need cap rates to widen further before deals pencil.
Debt Markets
Debt is abundant. Q1 2026 originations were the second-highest Q1 on record (after 2022), mostly refinances and recaps — "extend and pretend" is allowing Class A & B sponsors to hold and avoid forced sales.
Key Operator Takeaways
What Pencils Today (Jay Parsons, 6/30/2026)
Heavy value-add is "a long way from working." What pencils is light/cosmetic renovation on newer stock where you can renovate and still be the cheapest deal in a strong submarket. Best owners today are well-capitalized, have low floating-rate exposure, and are not over-leveraged. Operationally, the priority is "heads on beds" — fix occupancy before chasing rent.
The Concession Rollback Timeline
Concession rollback is gradual and "largely a 2027 story." West Valley Phoenix will likely be among the very last markets nationally to see concessions moderate — potentially into 2027–28. This is the primary factor separating the East Valley recovery (already underway) from the West Valley (still working through oversupply).
Source: Jay Parsons, Rental Housing Economist (Greystar) — Desert Region Multifamily Mid-Year 2026 webinar, 6/30/2026. Covers Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico. Note: a few headline figures (peak completions vs. absorption; the ~85,000–100,000 excess lease-ups nationally) were presenter estimates stated approximately during delivery.
Phoenix Business Journal · July 7, 2026 · CoStar Group
Phoenix Cracks Top 10 Most Improved Apartment Markets Nationally
CoStar Group ranked Phoenix among the nation's top 10 most improved multifamily markets, based on annual improvement from June 2025 to June 2026 — measuring one-year changes in rent growth, vacancy rate, supply under construction, and supply/demand balance. Reported by the Phoenix Business Journal on July 7, 2026.
11.7%
Vacancy Rate (Jun '26)
↓ from 12.3% YoY (CoStar)
4%
Share Under Construction
↓ from 6.6% YoY
–0.2%
Rent Growth (Jun '26)
Improved from –1.5% (Jun '25)
+0.1%
Supply/Demand Balance
Flipped from –1.6% (Jun '25)
$1,300
Avg 1BR Rent
22% below national avg (Apts.com)
–25%
Q1 2026 Deliveries
vs. same period 2025
What the Rankings Show
CoStar's Ranking Methodology
CoStar's composite rankings are based on one-year change in: rent growth, vacancy rate, supply under construction, and supply/demand balance. Phoenix ranked top 10 nationally on this composite measure for June 2026, based on improvement from June 2025. Other top-10 markets include San Francisco, San Jose, East Bay, Milwaukee, Jackson, Denver, Austin, Jacksonville, Atlanta, and Raleigh.
Vacancy Trend & Forecast
Vacancy Declining — CoStar Projections
Phoenix vacancy declined from 12.3% to 11.7% YoY — the first sustained improvement. The majority of submarkets are still above their established stabilized vacancy rates, but the direction is clearly improving. CoStar projects continued decline to 10% in 2027 and 9.5% in 2028.
Rent Momentum
Rent Growth Turning Green
Rent growth momentum improved from –1.5% in June 2025 to –0.2% in June 2026. CoStar forecasts rent growth to move into positive territory from Q2 2026 onwards. Concessions are also projected to moderate. Average 1-bedroom rent of $1,300 is 22% below the national average — creating a value proposition that supports continued in-migration demand.
Notable Transaction — Validation from Capital Markets
Avant at Fashion Center, Chandler — $110.25 Million
Stockdale Capital Partners paid $110.25 million for Avant at Fashion Center, a 335-unit luxury apartment community at 555 S. Galleria Way in Chandler, AZ — representing approximately $329,000 per unit. The transaction reflects continued institutional conviction in East Valley, Class A product even as the broader market works through oversupply. Chandler's ~5% vacancy and "eastern momentum" position it among the leading recovery submarkets.
National Context — How Phoenix Compares
| Market | Key Improvement Driver | CoStar Ranking |
|---|---|---|
| Phoenix, AZ | Vacancy declining + construction slowdown allowing demand to close supply gap | Top 10 |
| Austin, TX | Declining vacancy + slowdown in new construction — similar supply-cycle position to Phoenix | Top 10 |
| Jacksonville, FL | Declining vacancy + construction slowdown | Top 10 |
| Atlanta, GA | Annual changes similar to Phoenix; under-construction inventory improved 3.4% → 2.7% | Top 10 |
| Raleigh, NC | Supply moderation allowing fundamentals to stabilize | Top region |
| San Francisco / San Jose / East Bay | Rebound in demand restoring pricing power | 3 of Top 10 |
| Denver, CO | Supply constraints limiting degree of change | Top 10 |
"Momentum varies by region, reflecting each market's position in the current supply-demand cycle. In some areas, a rebound in demand is restoring pricing power, while in others, a slowdown in construction is allowing fundamentals to stabilize while rents remain down year over year. In still others, long-standing supply constraints are limiting the degree of change."
— Grant Montgomery, National Director of U.S. Multifamily Analytics, CoStar Group (Phoenix Business Journal, 7/7/2026)
Key Takeaway
Phoenix's top-10 most-improved ranking from CoStar validates what the supply data has been signaling for months — the market has turned a corner. The combination of vacancy declining, deliveries falling, supply/demand balance flipping positive, and rent momentum improving from –1.5% to –0.2% in a single year is meaningful. CoStar's forecast of rent growth going green from Q2 2026 forward, with vacancy hitting 10% by 2027, paints a materially better picture for operators and investors positioned in the right submarkets heading into the back half of 2026.
Sources: Phoenix Business Journal, "Phoenix apartment market improvement cracks top 10 nationally as vacancy drops, construction slows," by Leah Foreman and Jeff Gifford, July 7, 2026; CoStar Group multifamily analytics (Grant Montgomery); Northmarq Q1 2026 Phoenix Market Insights; Apartments.com via Phoenix Business Journal ($1,300 avg 1BR rent); Stockdale Capital Partners (Avant at Fashion Center transaction).
Northmarq AZ Hot List · 1,127 clean conventional sales · 811 locations · 2017–2026
Click any point for deal details · RV/MH parks excluded
Historic Sales Comps — Interactive Deal Map
1,249
Total Sales
2017–2026
$210K
Avg PPU
All years blended
$128K
Avg PPU Pre-1980
159 sales
$155K
Avg PPU 1980s
270 sales
$228K
Avg PPU 1990s
89 sales
$224K
Avg PPU 2000–2009
124 sales
$297K
Avg PPU 2010–2019
149 sales
$341K
Avg PPU 2020+
119 sales
Under $100K/unit
$100K–$200K
$200K–$300K
$300K+/unit
Multiple sales (click to see history)
● Dot size = unit count
How to use this map
Each dot is a multifamily sale location from the Northmarq AZ Hot List Tracker. Dot color reflects price per unit. Click any dot to see the property name, price per unit, units, vintage, buyer, seller, closing date, broker, and deal notes. Locations that have sold multiple times show a navigation arrow (◀ Prev / Next ▶) so you can step through the full sale history at that address. Use the search box to find a specific property or street, the filters to narrow by year/vintage/price, and the layer control (top-right of map) to toggle between satellite and street views. RV parks and mobile-home communities have been excluded.
Price Per Unit Trend — The Market Cycle (2017–2026)
Average & Median Price Per Unit by Year
The full cycle: values roughly tripled from 2017 ($118K) to the 2022 peak ($302K), corrected through 2024 ($249K), and have been recovering since. Bubble size not shown; see deal counts in tooltip.
Deal Volume by Year — click a bar to filter the map to that year
Transaction activity peaked in 2021 (237 sales), collapsed during the 2023 rate shock (52 sales), and is recovering. Click any bar to filter the map above; click again to clear.
Price Per Unit Distribution — All Sales
Shows the shape of the market: most trades cluster in the $100K–$300K/unit range. The tail above $400K reflects premium Scottsdale and new-construction deals.
Repeat-Sale Appreciation — Top 20 Gainers
| Property | Submarket | Yr 1 | PPU 1 | Yr 2 | PPU 2 | Total | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rise Encore | Estrella | 2018 | $32,813 | 2022 | $332,447 | +913% | +78.4% |
| Mason Oliver | Central City | 2020 | $41,327 | 2025 | $213,356 | +416% | +38.9% |
| The Halifax Apartments | North Mountain | 2017 | $50,000 | 2021 | $253,333 | +407% | +50.0% |
| Tides on 27th | North Phoenix | 2017 | $43,462 | 2023 | $191,346 | +340% | +28.0% |
| Reveal | Deer Valley | 2017 | $75,000 | 2022 | $323,295 | +331% | +33.9% |
| Rise at The Palms | South Peoria | 2017 | $60,870 | 2022 | $253,623 | +317% | +33.0% |
| Aspire Desert West | Maryvale | 2018 | $74,279 | 2022 | $296,154 | +299% | +41.3% |
| Sierra Pines ( a 2) | Metrocenter | 2017 | $71,536 | 2022 | $271,084 | +279% | +30.5% |
| Rise Skyview | Maryvale | 2017 | $68,648 | 2021 | $255,389 | +272% | +38.9% |
| Rise on Cave Creek | Paradise Valley Nort | 2018 | $72,340 | 2021 | $259,574 | +259% | +53.1% |
| Arches Apartment Homes | Westside | 2018 | $47,450 | 2022 | $167,500 | +253% | +37.1% |
| Tides on 51st Ave | Maryvale | 2017 | $39,720 | 2021 | $140,187 | +253% | +37.1% |
| The District at Fiesta Park ( a 2-Prop | Central Mesa | 2017 | $62,500 | 2021 | $217,601 | +248% | +36.6% |
| 32 Arcadia | East Phoenix | 2017 | $40,865 | 2020 | $142,308 | +248% | +51.6% |
| Sol District | Maryvale | 2019 | $76,563 | 2021 | $260,156 | +240% | +84.3% |
| Rise Parkside | Westside | 2018 | $48,295 | 2021 | $160,214 | +232% | +49.1% |
| Terrasol | Papago | 2017 | $67,750 | 2021 | $222,500 | +228% | +34.6% |
| The Gaucho on Glendale | North Phoenix | 2020 | $73,864 | 2022 | $238,000 | +222% | +79.5% |
| Jade Ridge | Deer Valley | 2018 | $106,494 | 2022 | $340,909 | +220% | +33.8% |
| Rise at Midtown | Midtown Phoenix | 2018 | $80,250 | 2021 | $255,000 | +218% | +47.0% |
272 properties sold 2+ times with credible pricing (conventional market sales only). Values under $20K/unit (land/partial-interest sales) excluded. Shows first vs. most-recent sale.
Average PPU by Vintage — All Historic Sales
Based on 1,127 clean conventional sales, 2017–2026. Source: Northmarq AZ Hot List.
| Vintage | Sales | Avg PPU | Min | Max | Est. Cap Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre–1980 | 159 | $128,867 | $1,513 | $316,092 | 7.25% – 8.25% |
| 1980s | 270 | $155,378 | $872 | $474,286 | 6.75% – 7.75% |
| 1990s | 89 | $228,647 | $3,989 | $480,055 | 6.25% – 7.00% |
| 2000–2009 | 124 | $224,001 | $79,963 | $600,000 | 5.75% – 6.50% |
| 2010–2019 | 149 | $297,859 | $41,327 | $704,607 | 5.00% – 5.75% |
| 2020+ | 119 | $341,825 | $3,957 | $756,250 | 4.50% – 5.25% |
Price Per Unit by Submarket — Historic
Average PPU by Major Submarket
| Submarket | Sales | Avg PPU | Min | Max | Est. Cap Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottsdale | 74 | $344,025 | $1,513 | $756,250 | 4.50% – 5.25% |
| East Valley (Gilbert/Chandler) | 118 | $276,645 | $35,941 | $480,055 | 4.75% – 5.50% |
| East Valley (Tempe/Mesa) | 259 | $194,447 | $1,895 | $561,404 | 5.00% – 5.75% |
| Central / North Phoenix | 449 | $196,467 | $872 | $508,152 | 5.00% – 6.00% |
| West Valley | 299 | $183,027 | $4,123 | $535,720 | 5.50% – 6.75% |
| Pinal / Outlying | 11 | $222,173 | $33,811 | $600,000 | 6.00% – 7.25% |
Cap Rate Estimates — Methodology Note
Estimates based on Northmarq Q1 2026 Phoenix Market Insights (Class A ~5.0%, Class C 6.5–7.0%), transaction comparables, CBRE Cap Rate Survey, and Marcus & Millichap 2026 Phoenix Forecast. Vintage serves as a proxy for asset class; submarket adjustments reflect relative demand and vacancy. Individual deals vary by occupancy, condition, debt, and structure.
Full Historic Transaction Log — All 1,249 Sales
Filter by:
| Property | Address | Submarket | Vintage | Units | PPU | $/SF | Price | Buyer | Seller | Broker | Closed |
|---|
Source: Northmarq AZ Hot List Tracker (2017–2026), 1,249 multifamily sales across 811 locations (337 sold multiple times). RV parks and mobile-home communities excluded. Map positions are approximate submarket-level placements with dispersion for visibility — they represent the submarket, not exact parcels. Buyer/seller names are as recorded in the tracker; where the tracker records only a generic descriptor (e.g. "Private"), that value is shown as-is.
Full Phoenix MSA Apartment Inventory · 1,663 properties · 424,148 units
Click any point for property details · condos/no-owner excluded
Full MSA Inventory — Every Apartment Community Mapped
424,148
Total Units
Phoenix MSA
1,663
Total Properties
100+ units each
47K
1970s & Older
11% of units
106K
1980s
25% of units
43K
1990s
10% of units
60K
2000–2009
14% of units
49K
2010–2019
12% of units
116K
2020+
27% of units
1970s & older
1980s
1990s
2000–2009
2010–2019
2020+
● Dot size = unit count
Click "Radius search" then click anywhere on the map to analyze that area
How to use this map
Each dot is an apartment community (100+ units) in the Phoenix MSA, colored by decade built and sized by unit count. Click any dot to see the property name, address, submarket, year built, unit count, current owner, and last sale info. Use the search box to find a property, address, or owner, the era/size filters to narrow, and the layer control (top-right) to toggle satellite/street. Properties without a recorded owner (typically condos) are excluded.
Inventory Breakdown by Decade Built
Units by Construction Decade
The barbell: 1980s-vintage workforce housing (25%) and post-2020 new construction (27%) dominate the metro's ~424K units.
| Decade Built | Properties | Units | % of Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1970s & Older | 224 | 47,318 | 11.2% |
| 1980s | 415 | 106,299 | 25.1% |
| 1990s | 153 | 43,691 | 10.3% |
| 2000-2009 | 214 | 60,917 | 14.4% |
| 2010-2019 | 195 | 49,559 | 11.7% |
| 2020+ | 462 | 116,364 | 27.4% |
| Total | 1,663 | 424,148 | 100% |
Average Price Per Unit by Vintage — based on recorded sale prices in the inventory
Avg & Median PPU by Decade Built (2021+ sales)
Clear vintage premium: newer construction commands higher per-unit pricing. Based on properties in the inventory that sold in 2021 or later (515 properties). Older-vintage last-sale values excluded where stale.
| Vintage | Recent Sales | Avg PPU | Median PPU | All-Time n | All-Time Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1970s & Older | 86 | $196,270 | $190,664 | 189 | $128,819 |
| 1980s | 162 | $231,727 | $230,571 | 373 | $145,706 |
| 1990s | 40 | $317,904 | $320,682 | 125 | $192,972 |
| 2000-2009 | 64 | $279,691 | $266,768 | 180 | $184,819 |
| 2010-2019 | 55 | $354,307 | $349,253 | 124 | $294,205 |
| 2020+ | 108 | $348,165 | $325,292 | 110 | $344,378 |
"Recent" = properties whose last recorded sale was 2021 or later (cleaner current-market read). "All-Time" = most recent sale on record regardless of date.
Inventory by Submarket — top 25 of 93 submarkets
Top 15 Submarkets by Total Units
| Submarket | Props | Units | % MSA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deer Valley | 78 | 24,392 | 5.8% |
| Westside | 102 | 23,267 | 5.5% |
| Central Mesa | 81 | 19,938 | 4.7% |
| North Scottsdale | 54 | 15,041 | 3.5% |
| Midtown Phoenix | 64 | 14,055 | 3.3% |
| Maryvale | 47 | 13,418 | 3.2% |
| South Peoria | 50 | 10,870 | 2.6% |
| North Mountain | 34 | 10,243 | 2.4% |
| Paradise Valley North | 40 | 10,140 | 2.4% |
| South Gilbert | 36 | 9,922 | 2.3% |
| Pinal County | 37 | 9,792 | 2.3% |
| North Chandler | 36 | 9,694 | 2.3% |
| Superstition Springs | 35 | 9,278 | 2.2% |
| Roosevelt Row | 32 | 8,973 | 2.1% |
| Arrowhead | 34 | 8,498 | 2.0% |
| Downtown Tempe | 33 | 8,151 | 1.9% |
| South Mountain | 38 | 8,071 | 1.9% |
| Papago | 28 | 7,862 | 1.9% |
| East Mesa | 32 | 7,783 | 1.8% |
| Metrocenter | 29 | 7,490 | 1.8% |
| Ahwatukee | 25 | 7,292 | 1.7% |
| North Phoenix | 30 | 6,505 | 1.5% |
| Desert View | 18 | 6,390 | 1.5% |
| North Gateway | 21 | 6,141 | 1.4% |
| Alameda | 20 | 5,794 | 1.4% |
Who Owns Phoenix — Largest Apartment Owners — click any owner to highlight their portfolio on the map above
Top 10 owners control 13.7% of the metro's 424K units. The Phoenix MSA is fragmented across 740 distinct owners — no single operator dominates. Weidner leads with just over 10,000 units. Click a row to see that owner's properties light up on the map (scroll up to view); click "Clear highlight" to reset.
| # | Owner | Properties | Units | % of MSA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weidner Property Management LLC | 28 | 10,134 | 2.39% |
| 2 | Bridge Investment Group Holdings LLC | 18 | 6,970 | 1.64% |
| 3 | Tides Equities | 19 | 6,218 | 1.47% |
| 4 | Mark-Taylor Companies | 19 | 5,974 | 1.41% |
| 5 | Rise48 Equity | 30 | 5,947 | 1.4% |
| 6 | Western Wealth Capital | 17 | 4,734 | 1.12% |
| 7 | IDM Companies | 13 | 4,652 | 1.1% |
| 8 | MG Properties | 11 | 4,585 | 1.08% |
| 9 | JB Partners | 16 | 4,581 | 1.08% |
| 10 | Knightvest Management | 11 | 4,524 | 1.07% |
| 11 | Camden Property Trust | 12 | 4,094 | 0.97% |
| 12 | Frankel Family Trust | 10 | 4,046 | 0.95% |
| 13 | ColRich | 13 | 3,955 | 0.93% |
| 14 | Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. | 11 | 3,608 | 0.85% |
| 15 | Onni Group | 9 | 3,463 | 0.82% |
| 16 | Pro Residential Services, Inc. | 14 | 3,348 | 0.79% |
| 17 | Greystar Real Estate Partners | 12 | 3,330 | 0.79% |
| 18 | Blackstone Inc. | 9 | 3,277 | 0.77% |
| 19 | Millburn & Company | 10 | 3,230 | 0.76% |
| 20 | TruAmerica Multifamily | 11 | 2,999 | 0.71% |
| 21 | Benedict Canyon Equities Inc. | 9 | 2,944 | 0.69% |
| 22 | Dominium | 10 | 2,783 | 0.66% |
| 23 | Inland Private Capital Corporation | 13 | 2,726 | 0.64% |
| 24 | NALS Apartment Homes | 8 | 2,689 | 0.63% |
| 25 | Fairfield Residential | 9 | 2,644 | 0.62% |
| 26 | Decron Properties | 10 | 2,562 | 0.6% |
| 27 | NexMetro Communities | 14 | 2,506 | 0.59% |
| 28 | Wood Partners | 7 | 2,470 | 0.58% |
| 29 | Empire Group of Companies | 10 | 2,428 | 0.57% |
| 30 | Cavan Companies | 9 | 2,379 | 0.56% |
Top 30 of 740 owners shown. Ownership as recorded in CoStar "True Owner" field. Portfolios may span multiple entities where an owner uses different holding companies.
Where the Growth Is — New Supply Concentration
Share of Stock Built Since 2020 (top submarkets)
The metro's growth frontier is the outer West Valley and Southeast Valley. Several submarkets (Laveen, Estrella, San Tan Valley, White Tank) are essentially 100% new construction — they barely existed as rental markets before 2020.
| Submarket | Total Units | Built 2020+ | % New |
|---|---|---|---|
| White Tank | 1,183 | 1,183 | 100% |
| San Tan Valley | 1,493 | 1,493 | 100% |
| Laveen | 1,861 | 1,861 | 100% |
| Estrella Mountain | 2,002 | 2,002 | 100% |
| West Valley | 3,372 | 3,056 | 91% |
| Lake Pleasant | 1,464 | 1,328 | 91% |
| Canyon Trails | 4,415 | 3,497 | 79% |
| South Surprise | 5,042 | 3,488 | 69% |
| Estrella | 2,558 | 1,701 | 66% |
| Queen Creek | 1,951 | 1,286 | 66% |
| Warehouse District | 1,975 | 1,289 | 65% |
| Roosevelt Row | 8,973 | 5,784 | 64% |
| Central City | 2,807 | 1,743 | 62% |
| East Mesa | 7,783 | 4,570 | 59% |
| East Gilbert | 1,957 | 1,155 | 59% |
Average Year Built by Submarket (oldest & newest)
The urban core (North Phoenix, Alameda, North Mountain, Metrocenter, Central Mesa) holds the oldest stock (early-mid 1980s) — prime value-add territory. The fringe submarkets are almost entirely new.
Transaction Liquidity — Properties by Last Sale Year
31% of properties (511) have no recorded sale — long-held or original-owner assets. Trading peaked in 2021 (176 properties) and 2022 (160), then fell sharply in 2023 as rates rose. Activity is now recovering.
🎯 Value-Add Target Screener — build a prospecting list from the full MSA inventory
How this works
Set your criteria below to surface acquisition or listing targets. The default screen finds older-vintage, larger properties that haven't traded recently — the classic value-add profile. Properties that have never recorded a sale are flagged in red (often long-held or original-owner assets). Export any result set to CSV for your CRM or call list.
| Property | Address | Submarket | Built | Units | Owner | Last Sale | Held | Last PPU |
|---|
"Held" = years since last recorded sale as of 2026. Amber = 7+ years held; red = no sale on record. Sorted by unit count descending. Source: CoStar Group property data.
Full Inventory Log — All 1,663 Properties
Filter by:
| Property | Address | City | Submarket | Yr Built | Units | Owner | Last Sale | $/SF |
|---|
Source: CoStar Group property export, Phoenix MSA apartment communities (100+ units), 1,663 properties totaling 424,148 units. Properties without a recorded owner name (typically condominium communities) are excluded per methodology. Coordinates are exact (CoStar-provided). Total unit count aligns with published MSA inventory estimates of ~420,000–430,000 units.